Bull Horns and Bear Claws 50/50

Don't buy it when you hear some "expert" say that the market is going up/down in the next days or weeks. For every "expert" who says one thing, there are an equal number of experts who say the opposite. In fact, if I took a poll this very second of every player on Wall Street, half would be basically bullish, and half would be basically bearish....50/50. How do I know that? Think about it....If 51 percent of the players thought the market was moving up, and 49 percent thought it was going down, we would see more buyers than sellers, right? There would be more buy orders than sell orders (demand would exceed supply), and that would force the price of stocks up....up...up until such point as the number of sell orders and buy orders were the same, at which point, the price would stop moving. If 51 percent of the players were selling (thinking the market was headed south), then the price would drop...drop...drop until such point that equilibrium was reached.

Moral: Don't bother even reading prediction stories, much less acting on them. Put together an ETF portfolio, and hold it for the long run, tweaking now and then for the purpose of rebalancing or adjusting to meet life circumstance....Refrain from trying to time the markets based on what Joe Blow said in this morning's Wall Street Journal. His position, no matter how impressive his credentials, and no matter how powerful his arguments, is only telling half the story.

Russell